No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
- n4 D; _  G% u7 t& U
8 u, t# M' h9 y0 a. Z0 y4 LIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
! R0 W; u/ u% L+ k0 h8 o; }( H8 q' U
9 R9 ^6 L, T& o( D# V4 |. W4 K2 W8 H"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

# ^. Q+ {! ?* ~' GAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

2 Y; u0 H: ]0 M"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
) q" n9 c7 h! d# e, J
9 C3 S1 k5 S: r8 f/ ?. a"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
. S- b0 Q; b5 S5 U5 N3 [- z
' b1 f' |9 j) N0 D) B6 vTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
7 t( [% N! o) Y
5 J" j' l9 ]6 r4 ~"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."

当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
' U+ U; T7 R9 B9 R/ j
- S2 N1 k( }# k[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]