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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 6 l. C. \. q/ c& _$ e$ |! z
9 v, c/ }% g2 z1 y* c, R
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
9 }+ E* c* [' Q1 P0 h7 c TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US, V' |0 x% J/ U5 T X4 H
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
, z+ z! K" V I9 ^' A! h8 sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging& T9 f8 |0 p6 D, k( K4 {
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)0 c. p, M6 i6 H) v- l* D, v8 z
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
" A/ J% ^ ~' n1 v& _% o3 c% ?. Fupbeat.# l$ d$ U4 _; R
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
5 [2 y/ G7 j( I5 iannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
7 f( H% i- g- {+ J3 D. ~6 Uinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
7 y% p6 V8 F- p* `3 Westate experts, including investors, developers, property company& a7 d0 E' z2 r+ C# }
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
, p2 `6 z0 @/ H4 J, v( EOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
2 l9 w* b' L1 ^; rincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.- Z& ~! m9 F( V5 V3 k* E1 I, @1 v }1 A
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
; P* M# m* }- h" b' m" T1 g, |7 vReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment& J+ ~- h* b! J+ W
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
! y. h: q+ Z) p* N9 X; l! k. Wbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record+ Y8 I% f! s8 n2 t
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."; @- B) X( } U& A0 S
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the" R* w/ o( T& c1 o) B2 i
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
: |. C) X7 \) r9 F$ R* h8 lspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
2 ^7 N+ j( m. C; K5 lremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US$ R% G- G5 t$ f" ] c' C, u- Y+ e
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
. U7 R2 n9 ?, overy good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent. I1 n2 q% h5 z7 O1 }
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
! y' Y+ w8 X- Drespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
5 c7 R* P x3 p' s3 fcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land3 p9 G$ G% e ?# a9 @ c
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country5 ~7 c$ L8 ^6 Y$ I* ?
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating5 O9 |1 i: X) c i+ j1 ^. ?
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
$ M7 O. \6 a$ F+ U0 v% m5 cresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ I' Q& q& C4 E2 y4 Etake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and( ~/ g# d5 O6 E: K4 ]: t
single-family housing looks overpriced.
! N; F, W- H: T7 l* Q9 y) v Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
/ o- s. T, p6 X+ m7 F( Btenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian# C# k( m8 o3 n6 c) C
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
* h0 T. D& b0 [4 D6 B$ [" nhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting n0 h3 }7 g! t3 m$ W. i5 ^
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
# n2 L; y6 K+ v1 P; ]+ J8 hand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
z% u3 a- M: a8 |1 m: Uapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
3 y4 `/ ^9 _* u; u7 n6 \2 dwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing2 U/ P$ O$ S |, m
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into( T/ I, W! T8 X/ x
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
- g7 e& M* {: n- M5 A4 t9 |# Lin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.% c, f2 x* M7 V8 j/ F- E; `0 V
) U, R9 E% i' B @9 A- u8 V
Canadian Markets to Watch- G' `) r+ a" X8 j2 P
* |! h. X# v" }( k The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
% c1 F& D/ Q) g( f) hcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour- r# w+ ]! V- g- x
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
{1 K4 P7 k4 C- P- U; h8 ointo the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in4 y- B! _) V8 q) W
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical9 |& v6 l. [, U* Z
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 Q% S" ~6 e) {0 z0 A/ w9 l* n
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
4 T8 {" f( o5 H/ |6 a& [prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain2 |5 @/ [/ `. {1 `* F8 t
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
' D6 S' G* t, | p/ y9 U6 B' IToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
# U3 \' J' y6 kratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
% c: P8 y1 U# r7 \' u6 ` e0 w* B
Calgary/Edmonton
8 F! I) H- m% [
) O8 ?+ v. H4 G Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
1 ]/ L3 { C- a- o3 N' `2 Qboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a8 u- N/ a6 U; J. H9 i2 P, n6 c/ Q# f
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,' x0 P+ c: j; Z* j4 A8 x
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.; h2 e$ P0 x+ D# L/ b& l, \- q* u
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale& j" F8 k1 y9 v/ p& F1 x( T
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the2 ^) r2 F( T8 i1 M
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays3 Q' z6 b o9 s: m' s
strong, this market will continue to do well.1 U$ d, {* w2 S6 m* T
3 _ X J, P. n# c8 ?1 J
Vancouver2 j$ k" K# \$ e* c4 ?
$ P+ K. L1 s2 F9 ?3 j' W
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is# Z$ K! w; @5 N6 v
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 a1 s+ r( T, Q2 N7 b, ireal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
$ n1 v/ s1 b5 }- g' emarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
5 @, @1 u8 K( Q' o$ tgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy- }6 V/ M* F, {# m x; W- L# R
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
; H' s9 ~2 M# v% n2 H, x. L. Rfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%4 L# _: [5 l9 i6 d
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very4 H6 w) B5 j5 w* Q6 a
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
' S9 J/ d, f; y( E
$ v% I q4 a+ X3 a; Y; _( ~9 ] Toronto
/ M. Z' a0 {- B- |$ m/ _' L) |4 ~* R9 c
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ @6 ^* b% Y4 Y1 u
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is1 v# k1 M' _8 L+ A e Y3 v
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; {# Y2 V% q" T, R) q! b3 w5 f
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
: q5 g+ \: g& j& mThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
. l+ f( q+ e3 n: o& Z5 }feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and2 h/ ]3 e* X$ L! X0 |
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.3 J6 D, g6 ~1 F& h, D% W) y
8 ^2 |* i" h9 v3 t$ _9 _+ `2 r/ E Montreal
+ w& } H7 k/ ~# @( K L% z' U
0 C( a: _, B5 x7 K2 Q' e! H+ w) { Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
; C# k% p/ m4 t! b% Lgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up- M8 @3 k8 l' Z! P0 B
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
# o5 a# V' v* m) X1 b# jCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate* G+ {1 m7 L& B
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ @2 k# f7 {1 G* ~# t: u
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
D9 O% d4 ~2 [+ S" ?' G l9 r; _* ~) U$ K
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% X$ y& W# |. D! H! ?+ A
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
* Y* b$ g1 e8 |, }; T1 \markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos1 I' `' I, }' m: n5 a
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest+ n+ F, a2 h1 u- s! x; y3 z8 c
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
) {; @- ^% l, K4 Q2 G* vprices."
6 A! l& }+ H/ o6 D- l. }9 @7 V A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
' V" H5 w+ f& M, T0 ewww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.& X" n" L( R( J e+ O- [
G- ~9 u4 t& d2 K About PricewaterhouseCoopers8 a( ^ x/ m( ^* f6 w! S0 |, k3 C# ?) q
' ?! G$ C8 d7 M1 a4 f
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,1 `. h8 f( i" s) y. a4 _. z% y
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its+ g9 H5 Q5 J% |9 e
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
- |+ B; C; P7 s# sacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 W3 r' w. h1 e: ]fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of$ t" S& Z3 ^" @
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
! m, M' K. I" s* Orelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
. ~3 O5 E# x* e% ~) L+ Y0 zcountry.
0 V9 W1 t. b2 y7 ]- B "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
7 p0 V. l9 R; s" D6 h- alimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
7 B1 {4 v5 y% v9 QPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
! P& w! y8 }% n4 q4 w$ Meach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.4 e) h: i2 ]: Y' E1 j2 X
! r d$ j! ~* a
About the Urban Land Institute# d1 Z/ ?4 K, ^5 H2 T' @4 z
b/ v9 N4 k1 H) a The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
5 t7 Q4 K/ ~$ s: Nresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
3 \( n: f) g3 I5 ~leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
5 @* L# [% `" r. J* {thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more- N: f0 t! N- z" E6 ]- G: m( K7 ~
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
Y& k4 }. T) r i. O' J0 Q( rdisciplines.
3 ?& }% p" \* R" U The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
+ T4 c2 m# I" q2 I. aWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District. k) r8 w" K5 L% \0 c- D: O
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
+ C' z+ _& r9 q# n9 `now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
c* j1 h& G: j6 G4 Z4 C$ N* w/ p" Nhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
) W5 J7 }3 e" H( j2 u% f5 u3 C2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake* f4 ?' s/ ^. z5 Q; K9 z/ Z: A
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
. C8 W% K6 Q5 a, @. v5 |President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please0 `9 c" H `2 _
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
5 }( Z0 h: ~ f, _ gthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 `) d7 f7 _2 S& Q) E
) j J* Z' K4 @# U" |7 e3 ~! V! z
5 {+ ?* y* V. |0 I2 c5 Z8 q
& h4 s/ C1 i- {; `' e1 r) WFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Q1 N3 e$ S- D" n) ?* O
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
( z: q9 }& W% x2 }http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html+ F- z/ J- C5 d! c
( Y. } ]4 W" o( l) z/ ~/ o[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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