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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ! c4 e& C5 N9 u! ^
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 7 Z" x) h, a+ \) o4 s& t
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US3 w+ p% G" e5 e) q
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
3 _) A+ V1 y! Y- P7 Fas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging8 G8 x6 p- O) m+ R8 M- V6 ?9 R
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
3 V7 b n1 X+ g' {and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
& C8 `$ X+ [1 q& z5 uupbeat.
7 i/ r' }9 L8 b Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded9 F8 b; U) ~! c8 s
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
O* {/ e1 ]1 P' S# r9 j4 k2 sinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
6 ]* T3 z% S1 C# D/ [: Gestate experts, including investors, developers, property company' q6 y6 P7 X% a/ K1 v+ k- M% n
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
1 u- C% K. m* o# f8 t- }) yOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
3 s- y4 y' }" ?( ^6 O' ?: U% jincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.- J q# C5 U: C
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 Q& \* |" D# u& q. j
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( U/ m; c0 [/ X. ~: d7 ]6 Henvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to$ Z6 ]0 ]* e( o. W2 F
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
* Z" o1 L( C( Qhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
5 L/ D# z: Z; C6 ? According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the G: A- k+ ]4 P6 {4 C! M! U1 m8 U
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 I: U& D2 h5 |" O2 ]speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
' O2 p4 r! e) C" P: k: Xremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US6 V5 p. w$ ?; F- Y9 D
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
4 r I5 G+ B3 L! W6 R }! V, svery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
" \' T0 U# q+ j. o) o The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
& [% Y( h" U; c0 Nrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by0 q! U. i7 g6 } `& B
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
) b) F& d) e# f7 Wdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 s1 S! v5 d" Vespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
: J: _6 E' F4 [' g2 }% e" ^: r- vdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
& e( L W/ s* ?' _/ o; }5 \residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
. [7 Z' X: r) S7 E7 ptake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 J6 q9 q# R1 E& ?2 Z; t" k
single-family housing looks overpriced.8 o# Y5 E1 X- g7 T* Q+ y: P
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
$ {/ e9 F1 }! Y: p% Btenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
* U. V# g$ z" h7 E j/ d- I$ z9 p: Qmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
- M: Z" T& A5 y- whigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
+ n- r* c: ?2 }6 Onew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,9 [" W' D% q! J$ O0 x/ X8 V* _
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
6 z8 g4 a; b; s; V4 J2 }apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
/ }" E5 y+ c* a9 m! k8 iwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing' ?4 h J7 v( t5 G' F/ a; ?9 X
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
# o: o; V; a s0 Ithe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
, o6 u$ P! V& ?* m2 i, Gin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
$ G1 M/ i( C- J0 X8 ^( L9 i+ t4 \+ k" P( ?! y8 C
Canadian Markets to Watch! R5 m2 F/ r( o8 J3 f' c7 w
4 D/ Q, i% E0 y* S% @ The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central5 l1 v8 ~4 Y* D' B! ?0 K. I
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' O: C% a7 A$ g% J6 Mneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back! G. ^! [3 L9 m6 N2 M, g
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
# v5 i _; B! k1 Y: F. @4 J, Jdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical0 _* F4 }2 K$ |; F
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
# b7 F! X( {: N5 Z, j; S- ywest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
5 B9 P" s2 b7 x( E) aprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain5 G( R B# W$ y7 ?% f1 d0 F4 ~
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
9 _' D% i$ I& f" UToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high( z. `! q/ y) ]% e: x) q
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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6 {* u7 r- {1 E9 ^$ y0 ^' ~ Calgary/Edmonton
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4 ^4 T/ \' w+ p, V( [. Y* |, y Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* y. W4 S( U# t$ ~% S; u/ dboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* f! V( F; T3 P* `buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,$ \7 l( `) ^( X1 J5 H- h3 P
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.% U* V+ z: O8 N4 P/ u8 m$ V
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale' n% ~* D1 K- S0 C
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
3 { h2 m+ p* u+ k( {1 GCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# G- {0 h7 C }& _strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, y# I& Q0 W# wbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
4 Y1 E7 h, o( U2 l+ {! sreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
/ K: l& H. Q0 J# X) Vmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a! e. ?0 B; E' V: J6 M
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy: @& u& k% |8 s0 H2 k* r0 f
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%9 F) e0 o. ]( a$ L- ^+ H
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%+ p6 ~$ y- _+ W2 O/ G, M
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very5 _3 A6 i; t- N/ y/ P+ h, F
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 s2 h& L" ]* b; w' z$ u! J
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Toronto1 c5 M% C7 a$ d' [/ Z& B' K
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and% w) F. M, ~- X9 Q
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
2 i/ U1 B2 H1 x8 m' e7 Urelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
6 g1 M6 m5 p3 A. s& u1 t8 \$ r# Dindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
& y0 ]* c% ? f, N3 ~8 V# `2 r: ?9 aThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square' {0 g' y/ H) V+ X- O
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
x$ S3 M# n, c* G! A/ LApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal" y4 y. Z0 {2 I0 O* D
# O0 N. {! @3 ^ Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, T) i% Q+ i; l' f2 I% I- ~0 ?$ egrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
; d+ S( o& Y9 Y) yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in3 l$ |/ @" Y4 c
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
) A, O: e4 `$ S5 h0 M4 C' M9 @sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
3 e' h$ |# A8 F0 khigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years1 L7 z* y7 Y2 W7 G9 w" s5 Z
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 d* e8 ^4 {# x, @& v2 kmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos" e: y) o9 c6 U3 N9 I4 @- B
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest2 r$ r, y5 L! b& R, f
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( q. M0 F, w7 `2 ~2 E/ u) G) W! Eprices."
4 c1 c L& o( e8 m- Q A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
: ~* K& G$ O: k" T7 k* awww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers- [9 D. X4 `3 w( X/ U& k
' r5 j. _) ~; Q/ C
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
$ [2 ^1 O, ~7 _4 X9 b1 @tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
3 U) ^# r% F& q: Kclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) n& T& ?6 G) ^" `2 s" U
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop! X. O, P+ F- b( m' w1 y3 E
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
6 P4 D2 T$ J, H) ~5 Pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its8 y! Q+ K6 q! }8 t5 e$ F# Q
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
* z* D# h/ A$ V' k9 i; {& x9 Bcountry.4 \' \( w7 Z( B
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
/ m3 r1 M3 P8 w- m$ f$ Y/ ^limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the/ m! I: W9 k5 m! M* y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,2 _4 W. j# x+ D4 R' C0 n) A
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute- C' v: s; P+ F2 C D4 t
$ e. u9 C8 t/ z* b' v, ? The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and& I ]" s" O! {/ {$ N3 u4 B
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
! G. Y& g, C0 y/ u1 Eleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating3 u3 J# G. a9 I% [/ C# {
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more8 G+ a' R; n) q, |! ~9 A
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
% m, ~! V+ n) m1 o2 Sdisciplines.: @7 K0 W) e) A6 q9 b) X
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
: _; {& F' f" W. ], UWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
8 [+ C" o5 {+ q9 f4 S5 V" Z' mCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is/ N- l `# h8 j% Q. p2 `0 K
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be4 |& G2 A- m" a6 }3 h# T5 p
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
3 P( ^7 F1 F0 P A) u0 |' M2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
0 C1 f- M2 I* w4 [Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,% ]: \$ B+ N8 B" v) H y7 q" _
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
0 C% G0 @& M S7 ccall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
& D! o1 k" I M$ Ithe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.* Q2 a" n* f4 d6 q
4 C6 p4 N8 W2 C6 [% L. U
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; J6 y2 @+ W2 s* t1 X! f, WFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
$ Q t& h$ ?; {2 Q4 i(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com$ r7 n! y/ C: Q6 K
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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