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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
* X* m r. N' s; V. P) F1 C& |7 n TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US/ X' s6 H. i. k5 S/ a" M
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern1 z' g7 a, ^: ?$ X& L7 j* m3 p! `4 ^
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 {4 u3 E" @2 k6 ^8 D% lTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)3 t9 U/ }1 _: w) e. y! X7 C& @
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' J( g. e7 Z0 B; k( [/ ~% ^) [upbeat.
) Z" d# `- f7 u: {; g% M1 g+ p2 B Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
( O/ Y a6 g; c: b. X9 k" M) ?* e4 ?annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
r! M7 Q: m5 v/ Binterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
- ]! u6 \0 ]6 x' y5 }" s1 ]9 }estate experts, including investors, developers, property company2 D2 M& m0 b! Z/ g D( |
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! U7 ~: t% N* N) b& x
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world( t7 B3 H+ m" I4 L
including Asia Pacific and Europe.; b0 y' V! E. m- e: D& F
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
: u8 p& W: b6 d. D5 B' n/ \Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment Y% }0 n6 H+ }7 Z" U4 P' N
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
$ i7 r h8 m1 W& N2 @- ~3 f7 Mbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 n' R/ i- m+ W3 J! ]6 Thighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."3 g) y* b8 Q' Q F. [& R+ [6 ^
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 C4 F1 W6 J. @* _border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game% s9 J! a% O' _
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
3 W4 b$ O0 R: N5 j" k+ \* ^% V9 Mremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US6 e7 d- N! D) {0 m
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
: d# B2 J' x& I) A/ M' `2 u& C# overy good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.) n9 o7 |, B( \: ?% K' v' ^% K" a
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
( d: P! ~1 P( V8 J* |& grespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
0 ~' a! Q" \* O' A; zcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land1 q$ `4 Y9 A) q+ G! o+ b
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
& p2 p; j; ]2 n- S6 D0 despecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating5 F2 M' ~) a$ x6 z7 D Q
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The& T1 _5 @ g- t& I- [3 m3 r& D
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
/ L! g# N+ Z: k* r+ S+ _% l$ Wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
0 d6 v( ~; B) A+ Dsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
G9 A9 M P" {7 X5 N7 A r Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with* \2 F p$ M! Y. C, q2 a N6 V
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ E, B! n; \ ?, w$ `
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
. X4 u0 h9 }) u( @* q% Mhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 Q% m' @+ x3 N9 Y! j* q
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
5 _/ b7 y% Y6 f' uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental7 b2 L' @; ?6 p' ^& i4 |
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary* n. b N1 s& g6 u& w9 H- L
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
9 S. U* x* [% ^" Q; m4 eshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into$ B2 d M. W1 ]) V J; h
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development* ]: h8 |+ y" R) c
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., `" u4 w$ K# A5 d, X/ W
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Canadian Markets to Watch5 m9 d/ A4 u! `; m
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central! g. B7 t# K) n0 q/ q
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
1 F% X8 I6 [6 G) n9 pneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back0 [5 ]. i0 Y4 N% d/ X0 Z9 m! U& F
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
3 S5 H9 F' z6 R5 Adowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
0 o. D! K( @- a) C6 G2 v# {projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out& B7 {# j& |0 e5 V# @2 O. K
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
- ?" y4 H5 s g F5 o4 z" ~8 b2 {1 Iprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain5 F7 a) V& h# p0 J W# Q n
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.* L1 q: [& Y# y9 B
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
+ R% @4 @/ A" gratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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9 `' |3 E/ _3 Z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one9 r3 f; G/ T* t
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; E- ]) g, u% B4 P. F; R Fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,: s4 i8 ?0 D2 m3 O* @4 T
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.1 V# x, A5 V3 ~4 T) n# o
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
0 Q% R* M( I8 f, b9 q1 ~Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the+ [1 m# l: M" F8 c/ F, \
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 i3 H$ V, {1 i
strong, this market will continue to do well.: E' I+ o5 |" |6 p7 Q8 a
7 r0 r- Q7 y$ T% ?& e* A1 a Vancouver
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! s% T9 v6 N$ m" Z1 d- O8 }9 ?6 b7 K Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is8 E# r' p4 |9 v9 _ F) H
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
% ?) b) s7 p) k5 o+ d& Q0 xreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
% T3 x1 T C, |2 Ymarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) e3 N" U/ S8 \- T8 m( c4 Wgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
% u9 J. O8 T/ W+ L d" P, B6 W1 xrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%( ^( |) g+ D' a$ Z# q
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
2 d5 I7 |/ B; H9 I/ s+ cfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very1 Q5 v L) b! D/ [+ \0 L
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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$ ]6 l6 L. _& m6 D( x8 J- Y Toronto
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/ M8 }8 s G8 D$ |. G U0 c& W Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
, b2 m- Z2 ?& ]3 Hmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is$ l$ }9 q1 _) T" r7 `& a% [
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
6 I* m% n. D/ c2 D! F Gindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; u+ ^$ z# O0 f$ n1 ]7 v6 }: ]/ D8 dThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square( i& T& }: A) O
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" y! Y! t) I; M! O1 S
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal- D2 V: ~ L9 l# F
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall3 I+ o" t0 p, i; |
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
$ [$ q0 x, i; jshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
4 k" R* e0 s0 U. h& yCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
, t& m5 j* Q- Asectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors: I9 a2 P' Y- {1 k
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
" y# u- H# }% a+ u5 T! g5 F6 q2 v- `# S oinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
# h! q0 N3 y. b: M7 n) w" @0 Pmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" u# l7 c- j: }near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest o- ^; x3 V) O U
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current2 f5 _5 C: g# o
prices."
7 o2 K& f1 }* f, k- }$ Q A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
5 i1 x0 i: E3 N) k. Twww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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6 f0 Q* {) z5 V About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
2 G( r. {# I% |" Mtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its: b" ]/ f& {! O3 e7 _
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* R) e0 \8 W1 _& s
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop+ k4 s# B% T9 a# M6 f! _
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of x, ~( K% U ~
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
2 b9 Y* i Q3 }6 b' o& _related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
" x& B- q, O- l9 I7 i7 m1 W) Icountry.% F1 ~1 t D P2 z' x
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 n9 {* }* R: V0 Z: l
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the$ W7 G# J6 h: q- K
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,5 @ |# h0 }; T( s& k
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity." ?( O! F/ E( l, }- c, h
6 ? z* @2 E: ]! Z About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, O4 H$ D a( @, H- `- d( r$ b" }4 c
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide5 U+ t$ t: C6 M4 N; _2 ^; K- N
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating2 j9 I o# t8 i; y2 ]
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more! j# l& }+ \" B- e& i
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development {6 U6 z5 X1 |1 X
disciplines.
! P1 r3 D6 @6 f. ~5 K; ~ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.* L1 w+ k. y- T8 G A
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
/ u0 p4 I# }. b! t dCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 Y% d* |2 E! j6 t0 e
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
) l+ x2 j2 {% n% Lhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
, S- d1 f$ N n% [: Q- w+ D- e( ]2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
" j6 y" {3 [# K: GHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ g- ^2 l1 N! B7 j2 Q$ @
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! L/ J3 I( c6 c% k h
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on; a u: `4 @6 W8 D
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,4 i( t& Q& {) i, A" n6 _
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
0 j1 A# L: Z0 x0 Rhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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