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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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* F. M, r8 r5 c, CDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 h& c4 V; z+ A5 O0 X/ [' t5 j TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
0 p9 V1 h. p5 R1 Tcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
+ I+ W; Q6 x* ?% Has the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
5 ^0 f9 g& G' z/ |Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), a$ i1 d- E" i- z* `* c/ \6 s
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more J( L& A+ ]' l$ ]' z. U
upbeat.
6 w) q( u5 v! u# D' B5 }$ C Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
: d# `7 o9 f9 f' c+ F) ~* h: Hannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 n9 |8 ]/ y" p6 Z4 }( Q3 G# {/ G Z
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real0 O: w J, q1 V v6 R, c
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company% n. F2 X* m( u6 l
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
' D( X$ P) S' Z0 k* T+ m. oOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
$ W: g. w3 H8 Z5 h, `/ jincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.: h% x# c; N* F/ s" u9 Y# B7 s; `
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
) R$ k/ b. {. P# I$ x. vReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
' [ K% M$ K' C, Penvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
- n0 N2 p5 L, z0 a2 obe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record) F/ O1 ]3 n7 x$ @
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
* e5 q S4 y, x, ?# b! d7 z According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 f2 b, |) U5 }# I9 D! Iborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 f; d, i, Z: U! dspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey! ]. o' F8 ^; x4 N
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; i. {1 i7 U7 i- T, c/ Jcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be0 m/ s$ \( _3 r3 y* T" l1 \
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
5 F% ?6 ^+ n2 v7 ^ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
# Q# k1 Z' d$ V$ j5 x9 Crespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by$ A; v% X/ m- j
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
8 N" k' a) f2 F" P- ~/ mdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
' @5 F. O ]* k; d sespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating% f6 }7 p, b' O: S9 M% u
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The; q7 ~6 i+ p0 ~& g% [# G6 Z; N _% d4 c
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
) P! [, t$ e: I4 F$ Y2 otake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and1 g4 d5 @2 n7 |' t
single-family housing looks overpriced.* I# B, }2 j$ L+ A% ~6 z& k) ^
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with1 I+ Z3 `3 t! V
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian; o- k3 b" i: B* L6 I* C, @
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
% o, r2 o a: N% khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting) B. N3 f1 o$ f' k
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
; I5 Y0 P3 c6 j' E7 Band most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
5 {1 K& F* N9 ~apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary) a2 v* K% ]; h, |0 s! f3 q& H
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
8 a- `1 l0 O: u% S# lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
; O4 s ^) t8 w( Q$ L, ^+ D: Mthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development- O0 j$ t8 d& o0 y& B/ W) z
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.! f% y2 a* v& X, g4 ^! f
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
* x* H1 Q6 r& C( |$ p& hcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
; K( I! }) W) W3 S5 K" U; }) c9 Vneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back$ \9 D; R l) L" M( y3 G7 O
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in& `3 {" u+ ^: g4 B7 l/ t+ P9 s
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical; C% ?+ c6 z2 O+ v0 e) T5 J
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out! a8 d; B9 J+ F/ k* G
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment" }- v4 Z! H6 c7 T
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( z4 ~& `( I6 F% {. c( Ewhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
0 R9 @5 E3 B6 N& F. J, l7 gToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high% k0 d. `6 u9 F4 X- l5 k$ K4 A. H: H
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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7 y0 Z: q( n" g6 ~ Calgary/Edmonton
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# s( Q! T- b' Y6 M# k Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
7 `1 a- i% _3 l7 y! o2 @2 M( Hboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
( |0 U T0 o- G7 [& fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,% N$ b% X4 m0 l/ d
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
; d+ q5 p# ^$ I: R- m' AFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale- C. ~1 }% }: U, l! C
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the/ a2 x @% H$ E; F$ k
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
+ Z. ^* [( c' a' Estrong, this market will continue to do well.. ]2 C; K/ {' I$ u. g1 |
) Q7 L7 E) r: R3 Q5 Y, I
Vancouver
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% B4 }/ V! P# Y( P Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
0 M: l9 R" o3 hbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' n" L, X) ]8 ]2 i
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
3 h' {. `2 |( p$ ~market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a4 p* ?1 u, M' p+ W) e: g ]6 q. \: M1 M
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy n6 K2 E' \! B6 o' Z8 N* R; @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
' ~# a& U' ^4 ^: yfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%% G% g z9 n7 t: N$ _
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very' t2 b- ~9 O! `" l+ K
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.( C" K2 J. t6 }
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Toronto
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9 S7 M9 ~* h& F: T- Z* C" ^ Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
# {5 L U( \+ Vmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
- u4 [3 J% g0 j! L/ f! l* nrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing& I* m1 R( B% c
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.9 S- x/ s: Y# k X
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 v& J3 Z3 ~" p% C6 i9 s. C4 C1 m
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
- ~3 y) {3 W+ u/ bApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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( A. K: t* O! J2 g7 ?1 _0 U Montreal# C6 J( x# d: q
* q; ?1 Q8 V. O4 S Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, c3 _: `5 s. W) ~! P+ W' tgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up; [2 P6 d$ S3 a8 u( N
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
' r8 L0 `; D/ i. e1 _Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate3 O3 b- }2 h+ `6 G0 K
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
+ f; ]* ~& s$ e1 Y- Ihigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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6 k8 U5 t2 t; u& R. B' a The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years" L, Z- H3 p" d- C: o
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
, t: K, w# f' a4 s p8 G) R5 fmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos( }5 q; I; K/ |/ s* t
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
) b7 O# V. j: a8 F' ~: Uoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current# z. O* j3 V2 K& }
prices."* l( V6 d$ F6 ?: y3 L
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at( C4 a/ }5 ~+ A7 i: t6 g
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
* j6 @" A. Q$ u. @& Y) H8 rtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its) E$ o/ D* y, a3 ?
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
. F$ k* K/ U" x5 y, c Vacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop7 `' ?& S& a: K' ^5 Z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of$ \& [5 M L4 w
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its2 Q9 g5 o& \1 c9 l$ x
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
* T: o: a! D1 x4 Gcountry.
* y" O$ Z! @9 K P2 X! f c w7 `' j "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
+ e! H* ^( i7 q) Plimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
& n+ @% P% l6 Y3 T F" q1 C+ |PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
) |& W! j- R! Y$ ^: \5 m! Leach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.. w2 ?! h& R6 D" c
: |$ f4 E' b0 A4 x" a; \ About the Urban Land Institute
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# i2 d1 e: @7 X6 {6 y" Q The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and/ ~; g# y+ r' ^6 _! o3 D& W3 u
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide6 f3 F7 l4 A: {) f7 Q/ l) o
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating/ x3 h! l4 V/ x. |7 N7 g
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
J5 v2 T9 p# E5 O4 xthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development3 V! T. G$ L# ?# M
disciplines.
9 r" {# R! |7 P. ^7 W The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' d, }6 A' ~- L
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District; w" |: T+ v% ?8 z" H7 S( m
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 d# }9 h, i, S0 t9 m8 g
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
8 x, V% U3 {" _- F" m; Y" j+ thosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
) m A" h/ `; `9 G3 c2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake2 C1 r0 ~: }, a# u5 @
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
; O& @& m! B) p% ]4 u5 O' ZPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
& G9 j3 P& Z* E( O" Jcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
4 S4 e: s. c/ D7 Rthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.; |' H% o" |( s
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. |8 G8 T0 \5 I( XFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,1 b5 ]4 d! z' b* ~
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com7 O0 }3 r7 B! u/ b
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html: z( W1 z: v) k* U a, Z
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