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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ( a1 P! ?, s' h( X% X
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
. \8 h- {9 W C$ E) scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
) D" W* F' w* u; m* F y5 S# Sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
" s- [5 R! A9 |/ N3 v3 y& T! `Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)4 e; o6 h! Z1 {: H4 y
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
7 [0 p i7 _4 l6 iupbeat.
S( q1 ]; }( O& N1 Q0 i Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded4 @9 M, [* A* `5 u( n5 Y9 T: A; F
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
# E2 }. V4 u5 |0 X8 A, t1 Binterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
; _$ z( L/ Q8 ~! r* M3 X7 c6 [estate experts, including investors, developers, property company0 `! d' K- M9 T$ D
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.. F/ a# b: j; {( `1 q' [
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* k- c% {( ^) N* p" z& Wincluding Asia Pacific and Europe., z. y2 S; S' @
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian" V) x, i" O# {+ ^ e4 K
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
7 E4 G3 F3 j$ kenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to) O3 i9 [$ X( h! h) F1 l% o- L
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record- A9 E5 g7 ~9 ^% j* ~; q+ G/ o
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."" ~* J" {0 }0 U
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 x3 T, S( l, s
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
# i7 v: P6 x* ^' yspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
* ^. `$ k1 e, aremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
8 x) K3 ]& \$ f/ ~5 \+ Qcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be c4 G" M7 m" X$ O7 r0 I/ n/ y* ]
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.! I7 G0 M, | n( d
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) a0 F5 ]. _+ w0 e4 n
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
/ x" J* Z3 x$ T E3 @6 jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land% V; ~% {% A: L! i* O$ }0 O
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
6 o2 O% o; i4 ]8 M( S$ |! [especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
4 h: M) ~1 p2 } Zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The/ b+ [! B% w& M. X5 N) n0 F: y# c
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! S# `9 Q: c0 c9 ]9 l9 ~7 w
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
: Y$ ` Z }* t0 J) {single-family housing looks overpriced.0 F% d1 z1 |2 h+ g
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
* d' k$ {# Q X B0 [# B6 M/ mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian( h8 ~/ Q' j, `) q, f2 y+ @
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push/ t( I6 O" w* X! |. j
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting( \" o/ Y- t0 P+ M r1 |. y
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
; Z4 ]3 e( Z9 d! Pand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
* t$ v) A- i- @3 [, s2 eapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
9 r. ~5 c, l, e6 e4 twestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing3 {' u, H4 V+ L1 Y+ t# L
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
% d) U4 A _5 q) d6 z: Z* ~! ?" Ithe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
8 B+ T" }% B! P F! fin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Z5 M: V1 q5 i" P5 ]7 d/ G8 m. u Canadian Markets to Watch' }$ j3 G" Z& n1 V2 k
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
3 J6 v( S2 u6 B, T+ y; ycities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour5 d) v% g8 I$ w) L6 w
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
% Q6 f8 c' @, qinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in) l* I- A* \9 t0 |& {1 v
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: s) o* G- x, G6 ]
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out4 x. P( n% j' m5 z, H
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
; K& x$ P8 @3 ^# ^$ p9 B eprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
7 g1 q* ~$ P! N z. Z! q! Fwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
: h) X+ L4 t3 u, ]$ C# ^Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high3 s( g- q+ `7 M
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.( q6 v8 L8 R( {# D' ~( {
- b2 B! t1 c+ } Calgary/Edmonton
- `4 k+ F6 E+ [' ~8 l) b \
4 F8 g8 K* p* r+ A& J Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one/ o8 U+ z; D" Q
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a+ E* @7 T3 W- G4 i6 [7 V+ n
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
. K) K0 F( o' k: S7 r48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
, c: x+ J; h% k2 o) OFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
5 V- [7 H+ T; tHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the l& j' w! W. [2 A2 A- N0 Z4 A
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays' `; |2 Y! y5 K) G. Y# p
strong, this market will continue to do well.2 S$ ?0 a0 @2 R1 P
/ i( S% B$ f' I: Y3 g5 | Vancouver
P- H0 v2 t& p
/ F* K& l- E5 f9 C1 I Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is! T7 t+ E" p4 U, v* i* f6 {0 D
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous7 ]* D! K8 U2 C( h- z
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the0 Z' i8 t$ @0 M \* Y; c0 ^
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
" L. v, v2 u5 S4 Kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy6 s# v8 i, H7 g. h
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%; {/ U5 c0 D% a2 o* `! L
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
, e6 c- `- W- y4 F1 sfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very- G$ j2 L o- c2 s$ _/ R% ]
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.% v4 v( C0 g% ~: T: s" a1 C( t
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Toronto" ]! W, v0 u+ e
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and2 |6 B* f3 v* F+ b) J
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is4 Q' D t) @8 b) @
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 I* V4 Q6 c8 H! e
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.( y) a' f8 V M, M* f' Y
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square3 g( C" q$ k7 S9 Z
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
, F! t0 v" G2 j5 y: s# AApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall8 Z, t1 X) ^1 C) b; |* C
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up6 x% {6 a0 |7 }; c
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in* t' o8 ~* c2 y9 w U" G' d# v
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
% Y6 ~3 d3 m0 ]4 n: e9 N) Hsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
; O4 g `7 y) F, F9 p, @higher as a "hold" recommendation.9 n/ p- a8 @2 G! h- P/ Y9 C" y1 t
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
$ g2 x. p9 C4 T9 i9 ~. Ginclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy" R/ K6 H6 v1 |( s' @0 y( J: `9 \; ?( R
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos* d( e0 m( W/ b- X1 s0 e- K
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
7 V3 K1 e8 U, u" v; b K6 g! h9 O- Doverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
8 p- r$ c4 a( v5 N- Nprices."% q3 r! {# _% U6 c I( A3 M% z
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 A. B0 I6 f, y, B3 |7 s, L& C
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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8 z" Q1 m& Q" q! U4 ^. t6 G About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 ^$ O% b8 p0 Z# E
; ?+ Q2 h, Z8 H$ H4 v% G PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,5 W& p J+ }8 o+ D* q8 \0 x
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
" x% x% l; E8 I6 p. b3 R1 {clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
$ f6 I: [( Y1 C5 B! |) y; c5 dacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop4 y+ i) N3 Z1 q' G( m" j/ N* Z* |
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of8 m9 C' {4 i& U
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its) v( }! _/ E2 X" S" ]
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
e, M- f2 T. {! |" S- Q" m5 V) Mcountry.& y1 E3 H3 X, t- i: G& x
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
5 _- _) }& a$ y) G: Q1 x& hlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( A1 d4 @- g0 {4 k( i. r, W3 ~. ~
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
- }0 g" \1 r) deach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 b. _+ f0 `4 v i% B3 `research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide% B' P7 x, t- }4 e% ^# G5 A3 T8 a4 j' Z
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating: s1 o1 _& Z: H4 S
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
9 r' }1 ~ M, _* M5 P8 X8 i. q9 l" Vthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
3 I8 m- l+ ^) u6 j8 Gdisciplines.
! `# h( E& ~# h- l; y2 q# T. T; \ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
8 C- R1 F% G' @) PWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
. V, r8 X3 P' H" m, UCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is$ C+ p# Y, k* X8 l0 {
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be& Y: @3 k: i( b, [6 d& C- Z7 g
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
3 X$ v4 s3 W# N* q2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
, M p# Q: u4 aHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
5 l8 X3 T& q' [President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please1 f Z2 Y0 t1 l M7 z( C( o- }
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on& l. i `* F6 P1 k' z
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.4 l4 y4 e- Z0 p1 n$ ^
2 W" [' P" b' V
' r' t$ ^6 } J+ p! V
4 u8 }+ V h( I+ ?For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
# C, s. `9 E; C% E/ W1 F(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com; j/ A( j4 C0 Y
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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