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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , ]: A5 s8 y0 \- q' n
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
& W0 d" |. A/ _5 q1 l& k, |2 f TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
/ X, u$ c. _0 Bcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
+ V$ |$ k2 Y9 K9 ?# J1 Vas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging& P& v0 v/ E' z3 @
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)4 [7 R% ]4 l. k3 p( h& C! d
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more8 T; O3 G1 T( Q8 B* y0 X$ m
upbeat.& @( y, S+ r3 [% \5 G
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded' C: Z3 p5 }' `) O N- m
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects2 I" U p2 B+ v: s' }
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
9 i" h. g( P; o; b" Destate experts, including investors, developers, property company
8 j6 }2 Q7 ], w/ m0 Xrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US./ U, ?- l1 d" X, E" J
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world: n# L' y J3 j
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
! l8 e2 A* E4 p: D8 i According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian/ @2 o& @ g$ D; p
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment8 h5 K1 K6 w# W" R; o# u9 B, X
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to: ~# i" @: k+ a! O7 O
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. j7 q/ i% I. f$ ~/ fhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
0 u9 r* L- S4 K# j According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
" H# @9 W7 W1 [, Q/ ~0 D* t1 Y: wborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 b+ d/ K' y! r+ b$ Y8 }
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey6 S4 w3 q8 K6 X0 i' I4 j1 X. S
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US, a4 T* d' N2 I, q4 V4 f3 Y6 |- e* o
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
8 d1 {% k+ l2 z6 nvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.6 F( {5 F4 t6 R* F; X
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! }6 p$ X: \. {' _$ R7 S2 \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by: n' @7 I5 c3 e5 m! i" l: P) Y
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 D2 ?- |9 S1 U5 |development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
1 T0 }3 w7 P: o4 x6 Cespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating( ~5 V$ c1 H- q" r
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The( ?; K$ T$ P2 g3 G1 D y/ C! k
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
6 E$ C2 t6 u0 y ztake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and/ G8 A' J, v5 L
single-family housing looks overpriced.& O: `& S" S L! I& ]9 D
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with% v1 V5 B3 l! W' J
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
# e# o4 l' u% h: I# @2 E/ N( tmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push" j0 t6 m2 ~) w/ N4 |0 D
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting' F- x! S1 Z# R0 }) M6 I
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,( _' ?- o8 n4 P, x5 W! A5 Y: @/ ?" F
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
7 H) G9 g5 |8 j. b Z tapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary6 i E Q- t" ?0 o2 C
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing9 r @6 @+ X* C1 E
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into& _# K" ]# l) Z) M
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
! e3 E# s' ?' a4 ?# _in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.6 D" N9 X, H- o# e9 T, q4 ~6 G
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Canadian Markets to Watch" Y9 L @5 c9 k; l& ^. _
: Q/ `% C0 G f7 i- ~1 E6 p The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, e( p$ q0 U3 ccities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour- \" G8 }% P S2 e. r: D
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back" m# ^% `! U6 ]+ u2 h' }
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in: r- q% b) d. ^$ M/ q% [- K5 e
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical( ^! H$ d7 V1 L% y# W
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
2 x8 ]: c! _8 M& Cwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment+ ?0 T5 r+ w4 Q; O
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain( n- x: }8 B1 D2 s) e+ g- a/ S; C
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( c& k1 L5 X8 E; VToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' c7 t1 Z9 b' z" `ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ n7 G2 l7 r2 S4 t7 @: r& Lboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a1 }7 [/ g: e5 U8 ^- V
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
9 d. ?, i2 K: Y* a* d48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.6 }6 X) F+ Z- ?& f- F
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
' K& |# F) z" n( DHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" T5 n1 u9 R2 L3 {Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays3 {, M& u; ~, t' a
strong, this market will continue to do well.
( m! V6 R/ P q9 w- B1 a+ o
( j/ G1 |: ?7 Z+ B: B" n4 J8 L Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is- {( w- ~6 a, O7 \: q4 R
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
! m. S5 ]! J) A7 Zreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
' F0 K# M& m! Imarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a2 t- e R( q3 F" G i# ]. r
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy! L& o8 q3 j" W! g
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
# }& k, ~( L% f, s! k7 I$ Y8 tfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
* ?% |4 R9 H, O& _8 mfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
1 u+ m2 l& f4 n1 J. u& G% cgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto& |9 c+ U+ \6 x! L# I4 V
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and" ]8 Q l- F, \' X& M. q! I
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
5 {# R. I& g- |4 H9 M* prelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing2 u& J: C0 e& F2 Z* Y' |7 k! _/ y
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
. y) d8 v. i0 v/ uThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
# W ~3 |+ k0 k. E+ h; p$ ifeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
1 h5 I' ?) Y* [3 |Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.9 K+ U* w8 q: M
. L) @/ X9 ]; [ Montreal4 E! `) Z6 y' e2 ^* C. k
$ d+ E5 A0 w3 N8 b! Y Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall7 q: z+ B# X6 s1 y1 R
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
/ t6 H# W9 W" T/ yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in- V" _/ w# [1 ~
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
( p- D% j- V$ ], Fsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
. F; w8 Y9 ^! u" H" a9 phigher as a "hold" recommendation.' ` Z, r4 K6 ~3 _8 `' k
/ s, n# Q Z5 {/ _; }6 b
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years+ K0 E3 e3 v% l9 j, j
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy% {- {$ j4 E7 C: J( D
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos8 x- m. x% i) F: R- |7 T1 z5 O
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest& N& z' J2 s" ^' [* G* C) j2 s
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
3 |8 H1 {% R( w0 Zprices."$ E5 Y0 w8 i7 i, I
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
: W @9 |. z, c1 J( I' j" swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
3 m; T4 e! A& Z2 F7 A; i) x& t }+ ^$ [
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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8 U( X) v# ?* p9 _8 E PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,4 j: @+ v6 o- i% D# t
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
8 x$ N6 S/ L0 K: O/ bclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) `* ~) V2 V8 D/ ^* Jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop' p& g. `) j# a+ B) O9 Q
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
" ?0 s0 y+ q! I6 b; K( |excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
; y8 |! l7 O8 ]: A* Irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
2 s S j( L" T3 icountry.4 B* N7 \( Z4 K. F$ C, y6 [) \
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
8 R2 M o$ X$ J$ G5 M' Rlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the: ?& N( Z5 D5 D8 a5 D) Z5 @& P8 `
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,- X7 t: n* U7 ]
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.1 Q9 H# E9 p# A/ Z9 H- u% b
, F; i5 x' f. S# x
About the Urban Land Institute
) U r) J6 i; Y4 C; j$ Y: i' z$ }" l
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and$ V0 v( l8 h% I3 | H" j
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide* ` m0 F4 | n, _9 q2 G) P6 H
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
: M' J: L* Z2 u4 j+ P9 sthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
3 M5 ^: t/ m( W2 D4 Pthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development% f3 U) B+ U- T( P% m0 l B7 x( X
disciplines.) R0 f g2 A% X- M3 A7 t0 A. L+ K
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.: | ^5 W- }6 B& f8 B
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District8 @8 z+ A* \0 _% u* S
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
. @) }) @5 I: d7 f* g/ G2 @2 xnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be! S3 A7 k. `' A5 q
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
0 ]/ I; `5 F1 c$ z0 P+ \9 N7 o2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
* J" s* s$ m' T2 BHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,% Y6 p* W5 @# t' g. T8 n' i( L
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
+ l) `/ d9 b, Xcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on- I7 |* S3 w2 _# } }3 w: w. l" @, L
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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$ f6 Z6 W3 a8 @5 x) E% C* V* y$ B7 q9 YFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
/ H' y& g; G6 ^, e" Q( c7 x* }(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
2 L6 z8 t1 V8 K5 o( F e8 {& H2 jhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html6 y P4 `. }6 M) Y6 U
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