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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 2 g4 ]# ~+ D3 J. s
7 G! B8 o3 ~5 h# |' i! yDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat r# n& P& }6 i c: {1 O
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US3 p* w& |- k, l7 ]" {3 q
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern0 |" | G5 c b; N7 @+ j
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging7 V- E& `4 k/ i; @
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)+ s( h& ^0 U& O: C* j u4 t
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
# u1 ?5 R# [7 m. R ~upbeat.
! ~9 b% _) E0 K$ B7 P2 d; ~ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded' @" G" }, S. j: c0 W
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects# c8 g; m3 _6 A) f, X
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
9 V$ ~' ?4 p9 |# kestate experts, including investors, developers, property company3 N e6 C8 k. c! b
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
N! v" k9 h" X' BOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world6 z- B/ G& V! ~& l
including Asia Pacific and Europe.1 i7 d Z6 F- v ]& ]2 c
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 b. L' F& o8 w% e" X
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
p' Q# x2 T$ T$ Lenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to+ o' H6 r/ Y( e; D( b! O
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. A8 p+ ^- ~& F ehighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ ~7 E6 K) s9 Z9 l7 ~. d! Q According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
6 l3 l% W1 L! e# n7 Aborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
. B& F2 ]$ y' F( t( Kspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
- d ]3 z% [8 c$ r9 B$ {0 f! aremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
9 f8 [: A* {3 J- u1 j! Mcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ l0 A, _) p4 z; N. Y/ w' gvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.' W7 a2 }) m& q6 w1 U7 A9 ]6 T
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian$ q( n. s) V3 v# Y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
* x6 |, e. z( r0 P2 w8 Qcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land Y6 j6 ?* b# T/ t' @
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 a9 B% t a5 I5 Yespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
: w- J4 F- K( ~. [/ A9 a, Kdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 c8 j! J V4 K m9 r! y5 `
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to& S2 X+ f% f3 h! _" Y4 a. e
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
3 Z* q4 q7 t; W( }9 o1 Xsingle-family housing looks overpriced.7 x7 |+ ~& D7 G( v
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: @7 Q: W* @5 Y$ P
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian# h, b8 n, J( k/ B4 C/ i
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push2 g( T0 H' ` f) |: l, y) G" Y/ C
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
, q& R# v3 |/ Z/ h2 Z. ?. x8 nnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,5 {# {7 f/ F5 G* e9 }
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental' Y& [2 z& q3 b) d
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
' J8 F0 G7 n' j* W# n, Nwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing$ t3 W; B/ D, }/ n1 s7 _
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# ]9 O0 n0 W5 _. ?- v6 n
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
( a' m9 D# ^/ J. k; B5 Ain other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.0 _) Q y% w7 N5 K7 S1 D8 E/ P
& y$ L4 [5 D5 U6 f( ~5 A5 |
Canadian Markets to Watch1 x5 q7 b- a3 m. ?- B
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central4 t: F' p7 r. ^3 u; f( ?
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
+ G8 _* Z( S1 z G+ Y' |neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back4 X6 K* a u- M; c& q+ n
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in- c, h, s* r+ j3 c9 d3 }
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical8 b+ }( Y& o/ N0 I" \' u3 H
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out9 e' a* M+ c. C) y6 F
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
8 K5 S; v& ?6 b+ d1 c% u- p9 pprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
5 k- V8 T, p6 Dwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.1 G; E. w% A# y: y$ `3 H& C9 r! b
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
, C- `) z b- i. ?6 Qratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.4 ~1 r2 |& k3 ^$ n
! R! {: M* F9 P Calgary/Edmonton" R9 c) j4 G2 [0 f
# S( ~. W% j6 g; d
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
' d1 g2 K! `% o' @) @$ H, kboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a" Z1 ]0 e+ K- N) L% N* N. a1 p
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,' J2 B" J/ m! w
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.: Z3 `% ^) X8 Q4 X3 R7 p' p
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale( d! P9 a$ T: h: ]# \; V5 \
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the$ ^8 a) D1 T! x& D$ b
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
. v1 ^, @, q+ e0 D6 ^- \, ustrong, this market will continue to do well.3 C+ l5 f1 m) a# A0 G v! I
a4 m: G4 R4 p; M
Vancouver2 p6 P+ g# p: M# s/ ]8 H. t7 {+ X) |
* Q* Z; E/ n1 P
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is* z5 U+ w. @9 Y: v; O1 U
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous* N5 n+ ~5 I: K) X) M
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
& U2 }0 \* u) Tmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a3 C( [- z: b/ h" w) i& l
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy7 G O3 J/ a# u% s& S
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%$ a3 D( H( _7 N# v; ~' F* B
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
. k/ h: A# t; m7 o8 Ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 z+ _- v6 |6 G+ n8 }good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
/ X& s( _: ^3 H5 M9 m0 @9 Z6 F! [$ f1 q |& a7 I
Toronto
- `7 a, T3 F( f
' k6 Q- {* A+ z: ]( P3 X, e, q Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and; R, ^- O7 {7 A8 ]/ N/ K) B" Y
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
; a8 u/ n# }' Lrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing0 q/ G, c& w$ f& w* {
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# L! B+ @$ Q' i) c9 G. gThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
* f0 m( y4 c2 k" l% Ifeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and4 `' S5 M3 ?" Q; Q6 r) q f* F
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.6 P$ m+ M1 R4 g B4 o% b1 l6 M
( r7 d7 L9 a7 I1 H" X8 J Montreal
* g6 ?6 {& a) Y# P S: |
% \" B) m/ Z+ s1 R) Y( P Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
6 E g0 h( w4 ~* pgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up G) d. ]3 c! z* W( g0 N% f! R
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in, i8 a4 D2 T9 v$ \3 e7 E% G$ e+ \8 F
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate+ s9 I. r3 ]% [+ c' k* H! \
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors2 q* _3 S$ q, ?; f
higher as a "hold" recommendation.3 L9 |- P2 f0 l* n' r8 d
0 o, V& V" X, O- u% Z7 ]+ F The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
5 e' \% l- E5 }* t# cinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
j# S7 a( @: g2 Smarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos5 w& e Q! v8 z: V& j- R1 P# I# n
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest6 X* O/ t$ G; f, ]( A
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
, r" E2 |# y% E# V+ O" ]5 J% cprices."& W7 {% a2 s+ w. h) b6 M1 c9 {3 t
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at; `, a( C. M& e5 u# x
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.) f( w) D$ w4 m- P1 i& [& _; x
& U; b. D. A# l! L, ~3 _
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
6 W5 u9 ^0 E s
2 [, k9 _* s9 x" o PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
! @9 s: Y5 T+ `! T( xtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
' Z$ _# n9 W# f7 b8 X' x1 sclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
1 {& j8 n M+ i" U: {across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop* e `7 e& U) y* N7 o
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
+ Q% ~6 ]2 ]1 K' \' F/ ^7 i! Fexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 S2 p' i, i2 Y/ B/ X$ \, Z: h
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the, L! z- @/ C. I. G( y
country./ ^- S. ~% W8 y& T) C
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
' F) ~9 Z8 t1 I0 Flimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the. L. W6 P3 r) G& P
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,% Y& E- B# i0 H! ?
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' Q, \* l' \% b, F3 S! o' O
2 h, E" g3 U7 X" |* w. ]" K) F) N
About the Urban Land Institute
! J, }/ q6 [" W2 m, A% G. w# A+ k) i; j# }! E
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and+ U9 c; D5 z$ V" U
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide2 t+ |( h! m$ K$ B8 @
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating3 g. P9 Q t9 i. c( {& s
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
w/ r$ O* r8 }% H" w5 q& ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development) d' d2 ~" p5 g, J* v3 ?
disciplines.( h; W7 u5 R: s2 }2 e
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ }1 a, H3 Q p+ M1 RWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District4 D1 m- ?. U$ l0 n& y
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is6 }+ K9 m/ }: h p
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
) @& O! _, s- |! Fhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
& Z0 G6 ?" I/ m5 m( F- Y2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( E6 j; `# p! J; J& [0 R
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
' T* G( ], z6 X. Y3 RPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
" B3 G9 ?$ l2 q. x" hcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
& p+ ` e$ i% sthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. Q; K }- j9 M* X/ r
" R( I. Y& V: |6 Z) ~0 E/ c
, v5 \3 H2 f0 F8 `
. C9 ]9 z* C9 \2 C" l6 C2 BFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
- u# c; @2 q) l(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com6 M; h6 Z) l) F4 p. v
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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0 o' d7 R3 R: g4 @[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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