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Attention Real Estate Reporters: / C& u' |" r) r, m* c) J `" q+ X4 w
& I+ y( V* X( X5 FDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 3 z* U5 u# L6 C+ z
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
/ ~1 ] b- F/ G; Scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
$ x7 ?( y) M2 M m! eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging/ {8 q3 r+ d# o. n, V7 p
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)* z9 X' M. z- c+ _; C$ O
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
8 G0 B( p6 G+ fupbeat.
: f& t5 k, m+ @6 q& M Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
+ _+ z5 _+ f: ~annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects- ~; P! P* S/ `6 n
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
' o; `, r8 p- H3 H& j9 [. z: Zestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
! ^$ W& }# G7 s5 Frepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.- o. ^: Q2 I9 {- |
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
~0 k& c: _$ iincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.8 }2 ~0 @9 A4 T# m) A* G* u# M4 P7 e
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian; e: G: g2 h' N/ g( G
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment! `2 V9 s/ T2 O. U& ?7 D |+ l
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to* I c- G$ j0 a+ o; m5 X1 N3 Q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record( b! J5 S" t7 X! \% Z
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
% j8 O: k( M; f6 I/ Q4 p, b3 j According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 x7 d( K5 \' _) @- G
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game. ~& j5 T/ s# e# J/ U' p
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey* ?$ K# L1 U& X9 Q, n) w, a
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
, }6 X6 V1 _( j8 ncorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be% S( q# K/ g! f2 `1 q
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.; w3 f# @5 R2 k
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian" t. U' l6 u9 S" c/ d1 U6 S7 v) N0 o
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by- m2 [9 J. c2 y/ o3 e7 T' c( A
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
5 d% B/ T- c) L5 i. qdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 z) S) A6 B2 ]
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
) J0 o, m% ^# p2 [7 q/ C) {6 ~development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
; F; B0 ?( h0 w7 Z9 W8 Rresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 w1 K6 S0 u# ~
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
; ~( @" A( R ?# c* |4 f- L" O+ j% Esingle-family housing looks overpriced.
3 E+ m9 c7 m8 [& L$ k* w Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: A& |5 `; w- C
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian3 v( J2 y0 i: d* \; _" R
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push2 f' e9 x, b2 H9 B/ N
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting0 H/ J+ x+ E; t w
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
) p+ v- D. h" x" F! \5 {and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
$ g. X* v ^1 z! J! | g$ ~: gapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ M, J( H$ L% Uwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing( @, Y+ \$ g4 F/ x+ Y3 f" z. V' ?
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into0 b& [8 q" x1 j
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
& Z2 ]" ?4 F1 f" }/ L5 i9 Jin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.9 [- [8 B) w5 `. N; _' s
- `% B E) O, N1 B& Q) D! [
Canadian Markets to Watch; p; h# l8 b4 ^9 V* v7 N1 D4 h
3 n v1 s- H( J6 s5 q
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
8 c! }" q2 r9 r- k) a% l% s3 L; K6 q) Kcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
" h( E4 ~+ I) x1 i; K9 Q) Kneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
+ X9 s; y) N/ f6 L; G3 V) Vinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, \5 v2 ~5 n1 A5 S6 w* e3 z% N
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
" t" V5 Q. @, Y3 ]( `) Nprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out, T8 u; K2 ~* M( U4 h
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment0 M- D; w. b2 h" Z) m! U
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain9 n* T& f, Z$ S6 W0 }: r
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
1 K; ?" v' W0 `9 h/ sToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
! H* X" e% u) Q1 u: P, M0 Oratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
6 w; o, f5 @( R7 ?2 M( c. |$ o( P t) }% k9 _
Calgary/Edmonton
* i# Z) j7 C1 I# d! f$ l: J1 U
. d K `" y8 k% b! G0 U Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
( i/ [5 P. F L1 ]$ o$ M1 P( G5 y" Q2 Cboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a) s: u# s; u G" ~* q: s
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
b2 z1 q9 n: g( d f6 ~& B48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property., \% m, t2 Y$ l4 t! o) w( N/ }
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
/ B- G! ^* q" JHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the9 k$ ^0 |5 M! S6 a( ?
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays/ B3 v& O# }; |, S" N6 a
strong, this market will continue to do well.
: U( R+ ?- ~* r6 O! l# `/ |+ [$ L$ D
* ^9 G9 F6 j2 a0 a) [& z- l Vancouver
% [ T) [4 a% j5 {+ t5 }
7 G; D+ p3 v% R" _. u7 b( s Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is! a8 c3 z; p- L: N X( @1 Y
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
- F7 u' K+ o7 l- r6 i8 z3 |real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
$ G6 C' g! ^' Omarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a, n3 H; D4 i4 x3 N
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy! P& t, X/ X# K* }2 ~
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%, R5 ^- Q9 |- T( K( j
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%5 p+ L$ o+ Y" v! W# E9 U# W0 W4 H
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very$ M; r3 V# R* g$ @6 j8 B
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
0 [# U! Z( B/ p; \; j+ E% o8 D0 j; ~& s& R1 c# V* R7 b/ ]
Toronto
4 v" n o" U* i' L
. ~3 q$ a9 M, w# [ Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
( j W7 `8 X' }9 Q4 {" y9 wmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
& {1 S* c& L. g5 p i' y, Arelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing( y3 m- W' s+ j5 }8 d! J3 _8 ^
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. D/ [# Y: z, B4 v+ @! r- h9 z3 D% {
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square9 V& ?2 V1 b( \6 r2 q( q6 ]6 ]6 S* n
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 E% m2 d; V; k0 U4 A) lApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.3 ~& r3 C5 I- e1 @) K& N; @' S7 n5 z
- z: n. Q, K p- X Montreal
# n4 J* Z6 ?' z2 c- l- f; z
/ E' f" {0 t6 l Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall$ L, C0 T# y# R# E5 c( l8 M
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up% u% e& E* l/ Y1 }
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in) J3 B* d7 `/ |( P
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
% i$ T1 a* A7 v& S3 B/ Csectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
5 Q4 _& z& N0 V4 xhigher as a "hold" recommendation.. _" W; ~9 @8 r! Y+ f8 a9 M
! J4 J' M- O4 P7 n' R1 h The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
, c; s1 y1 Z/ _/ C( Ginclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
/ m5 G* m+ R( i2 ^; s" B# ]9 Dmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
6 W( \, E* X/ B" E' R" mnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest8 z: d5 P" O @3 c- h
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
* e6 s* ~+ v: E9 |. sprices."+ C) {! n: b }; W* F! l/ X( U3 H2 h9 E
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# O$ B$ e9 t: D% Dwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre./ J5 b! v$ T z1 X& j& g0 m
+ t! e6 Q$ u/ u- Z+ J6 `+ j1 r
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
* Y/ W8 }: o; ]: M" K+ C
+ W* S& J( V* F$ S PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
% U: r" r' b' c$ H& D( C- `tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its7 ]8 z& q5 i+ @! m% }
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries3 y" {7 v4 w2 y/ `& F* H" N
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ _5 v) ?; {3 j0 a
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ s4 y9 D3 e* ^" R. q
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its* r) ~: x* U$ r) a
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the/ [; w$ N6 _" v
country.2 Q6 C) R M) o6 ^3 v4 ?
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario9 }/ t" @0 ]8 ^( a3 G
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
, G( ]$ X$ Y; S' e2 N, ^# Q0 sPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,$ a5 [- \3 j8 |+ z' c/ {* H2 Q
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
( G; T- u) N% K# l. s% j. s* Z& j
0 \6 H/ e# X; }9 d& U6 v About the Urban Land Institute/ i9 C( ]8 c, K. ]
# ^" Z* Z$ d& V/ U, q The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
( b% b. K1 ]7 @% q6 p$ e7 nresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide, k& S0 \7 V, H4 ]0 u
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating( u7 [& G/ Z0 l( h/ h
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more6 M* f$ C- B5 J* K: |
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
) H/ d8 ~: b$ q5 ?9 }/ ^disciplines.; {' D" Y9 \ d) f X d) S7 B3 w
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
+ q$ a- H+ w) } _With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District1 c6 a V( U' V) U$ C* M
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is: @, P" d/ r# o4 v3 `0 e _
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
7 C& d$ Q) E( Z6 [hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
2 r( n4 A5 n# n6 _# w7 Y/ a2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( x2 Q. r( r0 p# p. i2 z
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
! T9 @) o9 q) d: C( _President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# z* C7 I% B& icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on) g. A$ ]! u: [/ l
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
; n R- }% t: L! A# I% g% ~4 A
+ Q3 a+ ?; }9 \4 J% l+ I2 S8 a% F
) X6 U ~& s0 L( z+ a; eFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,1 A& {$ H& k6 G# u4 [
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 k4 A( M" d/ z, [3 E
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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