Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
. v9 o& M$ _- v) f0 i# w/ \Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
' p2 h/ a" {: \2 |# `
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
$ T" U8 J: w5 _' e; _" @# y
# p6 H( p; z2 L) I! pSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
) W9 l9 D- ^9 t% Y; }
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
9 V0 a0 t* q% L2 Y- R  @3 a
( W7 M7 v: L# H2 p# p: a0 t. SJul 2007
6 S' m  o- d* S) t, k- d NA
! |# m+ X# t6 y9 D 2328
717
442,752
  M* ~7 _9 f7 s4 [* J 410,000
320
& H5 o0 r1 p& i0 v; q+ x 28
31%

  ]: [6 F0 E3 L. xJun 2007
NA
6 F  o2 c9 o" ~3 O; ? 2661
3 D! y  R( ?5 S) M 1011
442,817
* a' [# y- i( x, V2 T 409,000
328
- @" p5 K( @. H2 h6 ?* s! K2 g! f 22
$ r2 D6 z$ [1 ?& F' `1 ? 38%

3 e  n7 z# y7 ]; ZMay 2007
NA
% u" z$ E  s7 z2 v7 ^; |, D 2288
1261
/ ]3 e2 j! z" ~. J 451,216
415,000
4 T, W' ?1 `/ l+ F4 e( U; D 322
' J) ?* a0 v* x  z7 ]5 a9 k$ u  ~; y( K 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
6 z( u  [/ ^$ _4 S- i* {这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* l) |/ |! {, x鉴定完毕！

1 ], @+ a5 z: r用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
0 n0 X3 k8 l. E, }" I6 q  i- L3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% L4 x: C- j+ @" s  \  I4 ?% L9 U存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( b$ R/ g% ]% x* K: ?  U" g鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

# G* E" _' x+ y, w" u3 Z新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
* H" `9 k/ |8 _" F% ]" m% Y1 i
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. h9 `% Z& y9 z

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
: }" O* T6 d  w4 r& b$ x+ }) ODon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ p  h$ F& F0 K% p& {4 b; {5 V8 h

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
4 Z2 @7 q( @5 t" O* wHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
/ d! \5 r, f/ E6 u; D. E) UThat is what i say half full or half empty.
' |8 N: ~4 n  l8 F: |4 Lgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

' {+ ]$ k) L7 Y% {' f7 `) _3 A
: Z* a/ {4 E: c, jI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 V9 r4 M: ~# ^" s. T9 yNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

, r& R& b! K8 g' K& {, c7 H, EQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

3 w6 o' D% X! R4 [- |9 r! X5 _5 `% ~
# H. r- M2 d9 H" `I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
$ u3 @& D$ x6 Q) q$ l2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

6 s/ |, K/ v4 D
2 i- H9 D( N+ ?4 j下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
5 w% \$ x8 v: Z; M; V; a
8 |% C5 J- n) |6 y% J

7 D% T% V3 l! S7 p. H% g# r: n& E只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
5 J0 x$ _. p, C8 D看来，观察days inventory 更重要。