Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
" S# R  a+ Z9 J8 B$ ?$ LMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
! _" i! ?' K! HIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
+ u( i9 ?9 J6 ~1 u
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
2 u' B# b6 R/ J& N( d- ^
8 [8 f! H& z6 b: S. x" S, }Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

) }& W! y4 V9 f- ySep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

- f/ E0 u! l/ w: n: C8 EAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
* b( [: q( D) I- Q' z8 Y) s$ j 442,752
6 D  w7 C% K0 {1 M' y 410,000
320
# @1 k* z6 U3 ~9 J7 ? 28
31%

Jun 2007
% V1 e5 z2 O% j: m* Q NA
2661
1011
6 p! U0 n; H' g: [4 [- Y6 e( T 442,817
! I4 X, D' c3 r6 I; f 409,000
0 o1 o" q0 q( r: y. o 328
. s  S8 \9 P/ J5 H1 a; _ 22
38%
% T( O% i8 g$ t4 V0 I
+ x4 W2 L0 [% p( e5 T5 HMay 2007
NA
3 A' ~* s1 S) [' F/ l3 C 2288
2 D! Y7 v1 z, _# k$ w 1261
% K& D& u, R2 G5 k# W6 a- v 451,216
5 V# Q7 g; U( [  I- A3 W( J 415,000
322
' s3 Z7 }$ z% ~5 s4 x. T8 \: d- d 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
; K, T" T) _/ L  b: n) m9 w2 h这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
/ L! f* W! M: V' F3 c0 f2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
$ [+ W6 W1 A1 z# I3 v/ D/ P5 p+ l1 \3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
6 X, t5 V! n% W
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

# G9 `4 \9 h* F% c6 x3 c, r

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
7 U! B$ r' r$ K( }# Z. q7 \' IDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 s& a3 g, f$ p' F3 d6 T- hHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
& t, Y) s7 [9 v; ^( t: Jgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
  ?: N8 ?! f( D% n+ b2 rIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

5 _1 y9 U: m9 Z& sI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
: \( V. w6 q# J# P* X7 a: u! h7 }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
: _& }% A  X" H1 Y0 ^1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; t) V+ `7 @; E- R3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

& e8 e7 F, c# o8 G; _9 t. u! m
* ^3 r8 @/ r: e* `8 S
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
% o0 [/ H5 l2 O+ y* N& u* D看来，观察days inventory 更重要。