Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
4 Q/ W* Q; ]% j% XNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
+ C) D1 C6 t# i5 u8 [! U6 e0 HTD can give you 4.2%.
* N! R. ?/ x3 r, A2 tBMO can give you 4.3%.
- R2 X% f# v6 L. m) t, b- vRBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
7 P1 ~6 v8 K- ?! D% ^" kAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
8 X  [4 \& o, |Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
  q8 z2 g1 b* ]# h* \: TFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
& }3 a$ s, t7 \& ?2 wRight now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
  O! L( i! d0 f1 T, o: uBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
4 C" Z! [& g: m0 K  ?: }7 ODeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
) `' }/ D* m8 CIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
! A  [% ~9 l$ E' ?- a! EBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
1 d2 {# b8 M, ?, z! k6 Z* H! Y/ U, W
All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
# [7 p! B! ]. M/ G0 {/ M! M% ]Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
" I4 z. k9 N! P1 K. RIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

0 h) k$ \/ t7 W$ w% w
9 ?+ J" g! X/ ^/ R2 J7 g0 L6 t. X
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
/ F; M* s3 Z1 i  F而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
2 U4 u" o9 [/ V7 w政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
: f: d6 H9 v$ ^Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

' F# F# S  v  d! Y+ [呵呵，多打了个0。

多谢。

把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
, j- W. p, i% J# C6 S6 j9 D; W" N2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
. O" M+ m6 _2 p: a) Q2 k而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
( P5 B  r0 T. O3 I政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]