Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
$ `4 L8 ^( C, J, mNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
+ S- n# c) ?' GIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
3 u& L7 z$ o$ `6 Q8 S# ATD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
3 j, M4 R: s0 [(Roughly)
3 v" i0 l' U- Y9 z! b. yIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
9 L, r5 h0 _) `- o7 j2 KAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
  \$ ^) ^6 c$ e8 k3 [8 c4 K; cFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
5 {1 `) Z  J$ U; }: Q( ^" oRough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
6 X" I; F! J7 k$ \* X+ g: B5 SBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
2 E9 G% F+ ]; d9 [If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
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: R( \' E6 g7 F; `1 kAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
) \  J0 T( S# C4 E+ G, R& wWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
3 H+ N, ]5 H  @' ^Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
4 P! s$ K+ o) Y1 {If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

3 N" l: Q! P/ T5 F0 X' r' @, U
: v' ?/ f4 Z( T6 W) \这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
1 F2 @/ J& h0 J& q; e: J而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
. `2 o+ ^  `; v# X; G+ ?* RBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

呵呵，多打了个0。
& z; C% a0 H9 I* ~/ h  p
多谢。

  |3 ?; t4 A9 I/ _5 o5 I5 \4 N把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
* j4 t4 _' c% U9 {% x我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
3 ?' O5 u1 i& ^: ?2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
/ g2 }* G/ b5 w. `6 `如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

; h- D' t4 V9 O: _" a0 U1 Z但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
  V' G) P  y/ p0 }7 x还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
! K8 d4 @2 o" z) h如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
) N6 H( G: \/ A2 {' r你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
+ f' h" r# i! P如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
- x. O, p4 _  m* I, SRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
+ z% O! X1 a: R( H0 ~% lUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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% j1 F$ H& B- g( k[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]